Thursday, October 12, 2006

October 17?

I keep stumbling across this date in the various blogs and specialized news articles I read. There's almost a feeling of weight to the day.

It popped up on Firedoglake in a discussion about the signing of the torture bill (Military Commissions Act). Apparently the President told the leadership of congress that he wanted to have a signing ceremony on October the 17th. So despite it being approved some days ago it only got around to being delivered to the president's desk on the 11th of October. This started the ten day ticking clock for signing. (Constitution, Article 1, Section 7. It automatically becomes law if Congress is in session, it automatically becomes void if they're not in session.)

It popped up in an investment site I read - - in an article by Roger Weigand who says a friend he considers to be normally very conservative has said things will pop in the market on the 17th (actually, "mentioned October 17th as D-Day for some kind of markets ripping excitement.") Yes, that's headed into "someone I know says someone he knows heard somewhere..." territory. It's the date that catches the eye.

I ran into it on a military site. I ran into it on some discussions of federal grants and authorizations as an updated deadline for certain pending categories.

Now as regular readers know I believe we're going to be shooting at Iran before the elections. But I would have pegged the date as closer to the 31st. Two major reasons for this apply.

First is political bounces fade. And 3 weeks prior to the elections is - I think - too early.

Second is that my guesstimates of various logistic and forward assets deployments had them onsite no earlier than the 21st of October and more likely the 26th. Yes, they're deploying. It's bits and dribbles of information, but we've got a fair chunk of assets moving that direction. But the date... the 17th feels too early.

But it keeps popping up, and I find I'm not going to be really comfortable that Tuesday.


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