Thursday, September 07, 2006

Silver again - the witching hour

OK, it's gone beyond funny.

Looking at the past 90 days of data, on days when the NY exchange is open, 10 to 11 am Eastern is a witching hour. There is almost always a (relatively) large move in that hour. Most of the time it's downward though there've been a few exceptions. By large, I mean moving the spot price of silver (bid) by at least 10% of its then-current price.

It's both regular and large enough that I'm glad I don't have a connection that allows me fast trades on the metal market. Elsewise I'd look about 10:15 to see what the market's going to do and place based on where it's going to be by 11:00. That is, short sell it if it's going down, and buy it to sell it if it's going up. I'd "only" plan for 5% profit each day - more would be gravy.

I'm going to see if I can find the same detail dailies for further back. I'm curious how long this has been going on...

OK, the biggest thing I've discovered is that I really, really need to check my math. 1%, not 10%. Half a percent, not 5%. Sheesh. Oh, it still looks, well, manipulated, and relatively speaking that's a huge change, but the math error does tend to cut credibility...



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