Friday, September 08, 2006

Silver Sept 8

Testing yesterday's theory, the 10:00 to 10:15 arrow is UP. I'll update this later.

OK. If I'd purchased at 10:15 and sold at 11:15 per my theory, I'd have spent $12.06 and received $12.08. That's not a lot - this appears to be one of the days where the massive move stops the run. My guess (yes another update) is that it'll stay between $12.05 and $12.10 for the rest of the day, creeping slightly above that if anything. I'll update again after the market closes.

Closed the day at $12.31. So if I'd just ridden to the end of the day - the other idea I was playing with - I'd have "made" 25 cents instead of 2 cents.

I think I'll run this as a paper investment for two weeks starting Monday (with a couple of caveats). I'll assume I can do this with TD-Ameritrade's $9 per action which is $18 per day cold. And I'll trade an even 100 ounces. If the 10:15 is higher than the 10:00, I'll buy, then sell at 11:15. I'll also note what the 1:00 price was for comparison. In all of these I'm going to use bid price - I'm a neo and don't want to get tripped too far on my ignorance.

Anyway, I'll see if I'm up or down at the end of two weeks of paper trade - and by how much.

The caveat is if I buy a bunch of silver due to foreseeing a huge spike nearterm. The two conditions I'm watching are:
Silver busts $15 per ounce;
Immediate percursor to a shooting war with Iran. This latter includes but isn't exclusively such minor things as:
- Sanctions by the UN;
- Iranian attacks;
- Military (US) movements into the region.
Oh - and actual shooting (grin). At that point I'll be chasing not leading, but it'll still be worth it.


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