Thursday, September 14, 2006

About the previous post

Note how I seem to have two potentially conflicting predictions running. Yep. I was tired and forgot I think we're going to be at war with Iran before the turnaround.

Odds are that silver won't bump up high enough to do my "sell half" task within the next two weeks. That's my cutoff. I don't intend to sell anything that I think will jump that high if we go to war.

As to the predictions, the previous post is my general view of the path we'll take till some bombs go off. Recession gradually being recognized by everyone, with a dismal Christmas in terms of sales. Hints of deflation that are actually disinflation, and quietly some safe havens start doing well. The Fed tries to jumpstart - to overcome the doldrums - and we reach our fork. If you're a kapoom follower, the result is an inflationary blast to new highs. If you're a deflationist the belief is that the Fed will be doing too little too late.

If you're me, we're not going to get the chance. War. Inflation. And beyond that, well, my crystal ball is too dark.


Blogger taylorfedrates said...

I read your analysis of silver with interest, but I believe we have now been exposed as a paper tiger to the rest of the world- hence we will suffer reverses until confidence in the dollar breaks. Watch silver, gold, and oil for the beginning of the final breakdown- which will take years to happen in somewhat slow motion.

Financial engineering has made the economy appear to be in perpetual expansion mode, and with the export of capital in the form of our current account deficit, Wall Street will most likely continue to party, along with emerging markets that are playing mercantilists. Of course mercantilism only works in a hard currency regime. Check out the growth of Chinese dollar denominated assets. The Chinese have finally figured out that we can continue to print as long as they offer cheap goods to us and value our paper...actually our electrons...

Hard assets will have their day, but until things get much worse, silver will bounce around with gains and losses.

10/12/2006 12:30 PM  

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