Saturday, July 22, 2006

a Hello to Bayers.

Austin Bay got me to join Trent Telenko of in writing an analysis of the missile that hit the Hanit. I figure I might have a visitor or two check in here, and I want to welcome you all. And for my regular readers (all two or three of you) I invite you to check the others out.

You should all realize that Trent and I are pretty close to polar opposites on the political spectrum. We've sat in a room discussing politics without killing each other - or even threatening violence - so I don't guess either of us could call the other rabid supporters. We just vehemently disagree on some core assumptions, and these in turn frequently give us different conclusions.

Which is why Austin asked us both to write it. He thought that where we agreed could be considered solid, and the dual viewpoints of our difference could be enlightening regardless of your starting point.

Anyway, to the new folk, welcome. I am a generalist. Everything interests me some. So you're going to find cabbages and kings if you go back far enough in the archives. And if you decide I'm not your cup of tea - either by my bias, or because I write too infrequently, or because of how I write - it was a pleasure having you visit.


Blogger sid said...

How come you guys didn't give more weight to the purported -but likely valid- video of the launches?:

It gives a clear indication of the apparent timing of the launches.

It also suggests both missiles followed the same flight profile.

Given what is shown, I will opine it was fired from a location just south of the Ras Beirut light which was shelled the next day.
Given the building density just across the street from the sea:

It seems that it would not have been hard to conceal the truck(s) until just prior to launch (now how they got to West Beirut in the first place)

7/24/2006 11:19 AM  
Blogger Kirk said...

Sid, the reason we didn't use it was that we didn't see it. Thank you for bringing it to my attention, and I've passed the knowledge along.

Having seen it, two thoughts come to mind.

First, I'm now convinced it was two launchers. The second missile backlights a prior launch cloud, passes THROUGH a 'vertical column' from the first missile's climb, and actually climbs to the right of the first (using building lights on the ground for reference).

Second, I begin to suspect the reason the first missile hit the freighter instead of the cutter is that it was AIMED at the wrong ship. There's just way too much divergence in the flight path of both from the point of view of the camera for them both to have been aimed at the same vessel - although it's still possible if the terminal approach was programmed to be from different (by some 30-45 degrees) directions. Still, in addition to claiming the miss due Israeli defenses and weapon quality we should add weapons operator error. Lessons to be pondered become more worrisome.

7/24/2006 2:54 PM  

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